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Predicting death in the nursing home |
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Currently, 24% of all deaths nationally occur in nursing homes making this an important focus of care. However, many residents are not identified as dying and thus do not receive appropriate care in the last weeks and months of life. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a predictive model of 6-month mortality risk using functional, emotional, cognitive, and disease variables found in the Minimum Data Set. It developed and validated a clinical prediction model using stepwise logistic regression analysis. Our study sample included all Missouri long-term-care residents (43,510) who had a full Minimum Data Set assessment transmitted to the Federal database in calendar year 1999. Death was confirmed by death certificate data.
This resulted in a resonable accurate, validated model has been produced with clinical application through a scored point system, to assist clinicians, residents, and family members in defining good goals of care around end-of-life care. Porock, D., Parker-Oliver, D., Zweig, S., Rantz, M.J., Mehr, D., Madsen, R., & Petroski, G. (2005). Predicting death in the nursing home: Development and validation of the Missouri MDS mortality risk index. Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences, 60(4): 491-498. |